How to manage your sales pipeline and forecast revenue you can trust.

A sales pipeline is the set of live deals, each at a defined stage. Managed well, it tells you whether you will hit your revenue target, where deals get stuck and what to do this week. Managed badly, it is a list of hopeful names that makes everyone feel busy. Your cash plan, hiring decisions and investor updates all depend on it being honest.

Step 1: define stages by buyer actions

Each stage should be defined by something the buyer has done, not something you have done. For example:

1. Qualified: discovery done, problem confirmed, fits the ICP.
2. Solution agreed: demo or pilot done, buyer agrees the approach.
3. Proposal: proposal presented, decision process and date known.
4. Commit: verbal yes, contract or purchase order in progress.
5. Won or lost.

Write exit criteria for each stage and stick to them.

Step 2: keep the CRM clean

Every deal needs a value, stage, expected close date, next step and next-step date. A simple rule: no deal without a dated next step. Review weekly and move deals that have stalled for a long time to lost or nurture. A smaller, honest pipeline is more useful than a large, stale one.

Step 3: build a weighted forecast

A weighted pipeline multiplies each deal’s value by the probability of closing at its stage. Use your own historical stage conversion rates once you have them; until then, use cautious estimates and update them each quarter. Then sort deals by expected close month. The sales pipeline forecast tool does this for you and shows the effect of different conversion rates.

Step 4: add judgement categories

Alongside the weighted number, classify each deal for the current month or quarter as commit (very likely), best case (possible) or pipeline (unlikely this period). Report all three. Compare the forecast with what actually closed each month, and learn whether you tend to be optimistic.

Step 5: check pipeline coverage

Coverage is pipeline value divided by the target for the period. If you close one in three qualified deals by value, you need roughly three times your target in qualified pipeline. A common rule of thumb in B2B is three to four times coverage, but your own win rate is the better guide. Low coverage is an early warning to increase outbound or marketing activity now, not at the end of the quarter.

Step 6: connect it to cash

Feed the forecast into your runway and financial forecasts. Remember that signed deals are bookings, not cash; allow for payment terms and onboarding time.

Run a 30-minute pipeline review each week: new deals added, deals that moved stage, deals that slipped and why, and the next action on the top ten. Keep the meeting about decisions and next steps, not reading out the CRM.

Worked example

Fieldnote, the fictional Bristol tech startup, had £400,000 of “pipeline” but kept missing its monthly target. A clean-up removed deals with no next step or no contact in two months, leaving £150,000. Weighting by its actual stage conversion rates gave a realistic forecast of about £35,000 of new annual contract value in the quarter. The team increased outbound immediately to rebuild coverage and stopped hiring plans that assumed the inflated number.

Common mistakes

• Stages defined by seller activity, such as “demo sent”.
• Close dates that slip every month without comment.
• Keeping dead deals to make the pipeline look healthy.
• Hiring against best-case forecasts.

What to measure

• Weighted pipeline and coverage against target.
• Stage conversion rates and average days in each stage.
• Forecast accuracy: forecast versus actual each month.
• Win rate and average deal size.